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Mutual Fund Cash Levels

Description | Calculation | Strategy | View Chart

Time Frame: Long
Category: Contrary Opinion

Description

Since the early 1980's mutual funds have become an increasingly influential component of the investment arena. Professional money managers' level of confidence in the market may be measured by their percentage of assets held as cash. Cash equivalent assets also represents potential buying power. Major market bottoms are often formed when cash levels are high and confidence is low. Conversely, low cash levels can be a warning of diminishing buying power at market highs.

Calculation & Significant Levels

Mutual Fund Cash Level: The average mutual fund's level of cash and cash equivalent investments as a percentage of assets. It is recorded monthly.

Formula:  (value of mutual fund cash and cash equivalents)
          ------------------------------------------------
                  (total value of mutual fund assets)

Gauge Elements: Magnitude
Updated: Monthly

Strategy

Mutual fund cash levels below 8% have been a warning that professional buying power is low. Historically, such periods have experienced lackluster performance. 1995 was an exception to this rule due to record cash flows into mutual funds which have increased fund managers' buying power during this period of low cash levels.Conversely, cash levels of 10% or greater suggest that significant buying power exists which may support higher stock prices.


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